Vitória SC vs Moreirense Prediction

Vitória SC
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Moreirense
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães·Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho 20/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.42
SignalNEUTRALModel65%SurpriseMediumGap-10.0%
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.63
SignalSOLIDModel60%SurpriseMediumGap+2.7%
Vitória SC Rest
7 days
Moreirense Rest
5 days

Vitória SC vs Moreirense: the result in context

Vitória SC and Moreirense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga on 20 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Vitória SC have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.1 goals a game. Referee Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho averages 4.45 cards a game, 0.74 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.42
X
24%4.33
2
14%7.50
Double Chance
1X
86%1.09
X2
38%2.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%1.98
No
51%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.05 = 2.56
Over 1.5
74%1.22
Over 2.5
49%1.85
Over 3.5
28%3.00
Under 1.5
26%3.75
Under 2.5
51%1.97
Under 3.5
72%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4 = 9.7
Over 8.5
60%1.63
Over 9.5
48%2.03
Over 10.5
39%2.62
Under 8.5
40%2.15
Under 9.5
52%1.71
Under 10.5
61%1.38
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.2 + 2.4 = 4.6
Over 3.5
67%1.34
Over 4.5
48%1.70
Under 3.5
33%3.10
Under 4.5
52%2.07

Match Events

12'Gustavo Silva INMiguel Nogueira out
52'Tiago AndradeAssist: Leonardo Vonić
57'Alan de Souza Guimarães INBeni Mukendi out
57'Gonçalo Nogueira INMatija Mitrović out
57'Lohann Doucet INFábio Samuel Amorim Silva out
63'Leonardo Vonić INYan Maranhão out
63'Kiko Bondoso INChipyoka Songa out
66'Tiago Andrade INRodrigo Alonso out
67'Manuel Mendonça INLanderson Costa Araújo out
72'Oumar Camara INVictor Andersson out
89'Nile John INKevyn Monteiro out
90+6'Toni BorevkovićAssist: Miguel Nogueira

Lineups

Vitória SC
4-2-3-1Coach: Tiago Margarido
Moreirense
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Costa
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.74
O. Zych6.348O. Zych
T. Strata7.023T. Strata
T. Borevković7.921T. Borevković
Thiago Balieiro7.328T. Balieiro
João Mendes7.113J. Mendes
Gonçalo Nogueira6.98G. Nogueira
L. Doucet7.044L. Doucet
Gustavo6.411Gustavo
Alan6.510Alan
O. Camara6.67O. Camara
A. Jakupovic6.49A. Jakupovic
André Ferreira6.213A. Ferreira
Dinis Pinto6.576D. Pinto
Gilberto Batista7.266G. Batista
Maracás7.326Maracás
Kiko7.027Kiko
N. John6.623N. John
Guilherme Liberato6.565G. Liberato
Kiko Bondoso6.310K. Bondoso
Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça6.37M. Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Tiago Andrade8.119T. Andrade
L. Vonić7.379L. Vonić

Vitória SC Substitutes

22J. Castillo
19V. Andersson72'for Oumar Camara6.2
82F. Dias
2Miguel Maga
6M. Mitrović57'for Gonçalo Nogueira6.5
16Beni57'for Alan de Souza Guimarães7.4
17Miguel Nogueira12'for Gustavo Silva6.7
29V. Ouotro
4Óscar Rivas
20Samu57'for Lohann Doucet6.8
5A. Sidibé
56S. Verdi

Moreirense Substitutes

9A. Duville-Parsemain
99Maranhão63'for Leonardo Vonić6.8
8M. Stjepanović
28Chipyoka Songa63'for Kiko Bondoso6.3
2Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos
21Rodri Alonso66'for Tiago Andrade6.9
17Álvaro Martínez
11Landerson67'for Manuel Mendonça6.1
4Kevyn Monteiro89'for Nile John6.6
1Aranha
12Francisco Barbosa Sampaio
32José

Match Stats

Vitória SCMoreirense
66%Ball Possession34%
3Corner Kicks0
16Total Shots7
5Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box4
5Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots0
10Fouls13
1Offsides0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
650Total Passes332
563Passes Accurate251
12Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

Vitória SCVitória SC
MoreirenseMoreirense
1523Elo Rating 1604
1.48Attack 1.37
2.53Defense 2.00
42%Hit Rate 50%
12.7Shots per Game 11.1
3.8Shots on Target 3.4
4.5Corners per Game 2.7
2.5Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend30% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

Vitória SCVitória SC
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.2 in first half)
MoreirenseMoreirense
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Vitória SCVitória SC6Wins · 60%
Draws110%
MoreirenseMoreirense3Wins · 30%
2.1Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga30/01/2026
GuimaraesMoreirense
10
Primeira Liga23/08/2025
MoreirenseGuimaraes
20
Primeira Liga30/03/2025
MoreirenseGuimaraes
22
Primeira Liga03/11/2024
GuimaraesMoreirense
10
Primeira Liga30/03/2024
GuimaraesMoreirense
10
Primeira Liga05/11/2023
MoreirenseGuimaraes
10
Primeira Liga03/04/2022
MoreirenseGuimaraes
01
Taça de Portugal21/11/2021
MoreirenseGuimaraes
32
Primeira Liga06/11/2021
GuimaraesMoreirense
21
Primeira Liga30/04/2021
GuimaraesMoreirense
20

Recent Form

Vitória SCVitória SC
4W2D4L
12/09/2026
Academico ViseuVitória SC
21
L
06/09/2026
Vitória SCCasa Pia
00
D
31/08/2026
SC BragaVitória SC
10
L
23/08/2026
Vitória SCNacional
10
W
14/08/2026
Sporting CPVitória SC
32
L
08/08/2026
Vitória SCArouca
01
L
01/08/2026
Vitória SCChaves
20
W
26/07/2026
Vitória SCNottingham Forest
11
D
24/07/2026
Al-Ahli JeddahVitória SC
13
W
18/07/2026
Vitória SCAcademica
20
W
MoreirenseMoreirense
3W3D4L
14/09/2026
MoreirenseMaritimo
31
W
09/09/2026
MoreirenseBenfica
04
L
04/09/2026
FC PortoMoreirense
21
L
30/08/2026
Casa PiaMoreirense
01
W
16/08/2026
AroucaMoreirense
40
L
09/08/2026
MoreirenseSC Braga
22
D
01/08/2026
MoreirenseAmarante
20
W
25/07/2026
GIL VicenteMoreirense
22
D
22/07/2026
Santa ClaraMoreirense
21
L
18/07/2026
MoreirenseAVS
22
D

Referee Profile

Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho103 matches

4.45Cards per match
4.40Yellow cards per match
0.05Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Sergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho4.45
Other referees5.19

4.45 cards a match, 0.74 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.19).

Cards come from 40 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto11110027:5+2233WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica1191130:10+2028WWWWL
3Sporting CPSporting CP1173124:11+1324WWLWD
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1163216:8+821LWLWD
5AroucaArouca1162313:8+520LWWWD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1162315:13+220LWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1153310:8+218WDLWW
8SC BragaSC Braga1152413:11+217WWLLL
9MoreirenseMoreirense1142513:18-514LWWLD
10FamalicaoFamalicao1134415:14+113WLWLW
11AlvercaAlverca1133514:15-112DLLWW
12EstrelaEstrela1124517:22-510LLLLL
13NacionalNacional1131711:19-810WLWLL
14Vitória SCVitória SC1123611:12-19LDWLD
15MaritimoMaritimo102269:21-128LLLDL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia112276:20-148DLWLW
17Rio AveRio Ave112189:24-157LLLWL
18EstorilEstoril100285:19-142LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto1127:533
2BenficaBenfica1130:1028
3Sporting CPSporting CP1124:1124
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara1116:821
5AroucaArouca1113:820
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu1115:1320
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente1110:818
8SC BragaSC Braga1113:1117
9MoreirenseMoreirense1113:1814
10FamalicaoFamalicao1115:1413
11AlvercaAlverca1114:1512
12EstrelaEstrela1117:2210
13NacionalNacional1111:1910
14Vitória SCVitória SC1111:129
15MaritimoMaritimo109:218
16Casa PiaCasa Pia116:208
17Rio AveRio Ave119:247
18EstorilEstoril105:192
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About the Vitória SC vs Moreirense forecast

The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Vitória SC and Moreirense in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Moreirense are 9th and Vitória SC 14th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Vitória SC 11-12, Moreirense 13-18. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.