Santos vs Mirassol Prediction

Serie ABrazil Brazil · Regular Season - 24
Santos
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Mirassol
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos·Edina Alves Batista, Brazil 23/08/2026
SantosSantos
1-1
Finished
MirassolMirassol

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalHIGHModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-4.4%
Value Analysis
58%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.85
SignalSOLIDModel58%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
Santos Rest
2 days
Mirassol Rest
2 days

Santos vs Mirassol: the result in context

Santos and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A on 23 Aug 2026. Santos had gone in with the better form, having won 3 of their previous five against none for Mirassol.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.2 a game across 9 meetings, with both teams scoring in 7.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
57%1.85
X
23%3.57
2
20%4.22
Double Chance
1X
80%1.22
X2
43%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.75
No
44%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.49 + 0.87 = 2.36
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
46%1.90
Over 3.5
24%3.25
Under 1.5
27%3.50
Under 2.5
54%1.90
Under 3.5
76%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 3.4 = 9.2
Over 8.5
55%1.33
Over 9.5
40%1.60
Over 10.5
29%1.97
Under 8.5
45%2.94
Under 9.5
60%2.20
Under 10.5
71%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.8 = 4.8
Over 3.5
69%1.26
Over 4.5
50%1.60
Under 3.5
31%3.10
Under 4.5
50%2.17

Match Events

20'Joao Schmidt
22'Gabriel KnesowitschFoul
24'Neto MouraFoul
28'Gabriel Knesowitsch INLucas Oliveira out
36'Eduardo
46'Rony INGabriel Bontempo out
61'Joao Schmidt INB. Rollheiser out
61'G. Cazonatti INWallisson out
61'Eduardo INJapa out
68'A. BarrealAssist: Neymar
73'WallissonHolding
74'A. Barreal INThaciano out
76'Igor FormigaFoul
78'Bruno Santos INCarlos Eduardo out
78'Alesson INFernandinho out
82'Igor Vinicius IND. Fernandes out
82'Gabriel Barbosa ING. Caballero out
88'NeymarFoul

Lineups

Santos
4-2-3-1Coach: Cuca
Mirassol
3-4-1-2Coach: Guanaes Rafael
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.59
Gabriel Brazão6.577G. Brazão
Igor Vinícius6.618I. Vinícius
Willian Arão7.215W. Arão
Luan Peres7.014L. Peres
Gonzalo Escobar6.931G. Escobar
Gustavinho6.948Gustavinho
João Schmidt6.35J. Schmidt
Rony6.311Rony
NeymarC7.310Neymar
Álvaro Barreal7.522Á. Barreal
Gabriel Barbosa6.79G. Barbosa
Walter7.322Walter
Gabriel Knesowitsch6.744G. Knesowitsch
João VictorC7.034J. Victor
Willian Machado6.93W. Machado
Igor Formiga6.332I. Formiga
Gustavo Cazonatti6.955G. Cazonatti
Neto Moura7.025N. Moura
Reinaldo6.26Reinaldo
Eduardo7.533Eduardo
Bruno Santos6.330B. Santos
Alesson6.977Alesson

Santos Substitutes

8Gabriel Bontempo46'for Rony7.3
32Benjamín Rollheiser61'for Joao Schmidt6.9
16Thaciano74'for A. Barreal6.6
17Gustavo Caballero82'for Gabriel Barbosa6.3
27Davizinho82'for Igor Vinicius6.7
34João Paulo
26João Paulo Ananias
42João Alencar
28Christian Oliva
81Samuel Mendes
30Miguelito
21Moisés

Mirassol Substitutes

2Lucas Oliveira28'for Gabriel Knesowitsch6.7
5Japa61'for Eduardo6.3
80Wallisson Luiz61'for G. Cazonatti73'3.9
17Fernandinho78'for Alesson7.0
96Carlos Eduardo78'replaced by Bruno Santos6.6
23Alex Muralha
12Victor Luis
20Daniel Borges
7Shaylon
19Gustavo Silva
10Chico
9André Luis

Match Stats

SantosMirassol
64%Ball Possession36%
10Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
21Total Shots5
7Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal2
10Shots Inside Box3
11Shots Outside Box2
7Blocked Shots0
9Fouls13
2Goalkeeper Saves6
577Total Passes333
501Passes Accurate247
87%Pass Accuracy74%

Team Comparison

SantosSantos
MirassolMirassol
1753Elo Rating 1661
0.94Attack 1.07
1.82Defense 1.94
17%Hit Rate 44%
17.0Shots per Game 13.2
5.9Shots on Target 3.3
5.6Corners per Game 4.3
3.0Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend78% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

SantosSantos
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
MirassolMirassol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

SantosSantos3Wins · 33%
Draws445%
MirassolMirassol2Wins · 22%
3.2Avg Goals
78%Both teams scored7 of 9
78%3+ goals7 of 9

Previous meetings

Serie A11/03/2026
MirassolSantos
22
Serie A20/11/2025
SantosMirassol
11
Serie A19/07/2025
MirassolSantos
30
Paulista - A117/01/2025
SantosMirassol
21
Serie B12/10/2024
SantosMirassol
32
Serie B27/06/2024
MirassolSantos
00
Paulista - A111/02/2024
MirassolSantos
22
Paulista - A115/01/2023
SantosMirassol
21
Paulista - A117/02/2022
MirassolSantos
32

Recent Form

SantosSantos
5W3D2L
21/08/2026
MacaraSantos
00
D
16/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaSantos
03
W
14/08/2026
SantosMacara
21
W09/08/2026
SantosAtletico Paranaense
02
L
05/08/2026
RemoSantos
01
W
02/08/2026
SantosRemo
00
D
29/07/2026
SantosUCV
42
W25/07/2026
SantosChapecoense-sc
22
D22/07/2026
UCVSantos
14
W17/07/2026
BotafogoSantos
21
L
MirassolMirassol
2W3D5L
21/08/2026
LDU de QuitoMirassol
5040
L
16/08/2026
MirassolFlamengo
15
L
14/08/2026
MirassolLDU de Quito
11
D09/08/2026
CruzeiroMirassol
31
L
06/08/2026
GremioMirassol
10
L
02/08/2026
MirassolGremio
11
D30/07/2026
MirassolRemo
21
W26/07/2026
Vasco DA GamaMirassol
11
D18/07/2026
MirassolGremio
21
W
30/05/2026
Atletico ParanaenseMirassol
10
L

Referee Profile

Edina Alves Batista138 matches

5.02Cards per match
4.80Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
27.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Edina Alves Batista5.02
Other referees4.97

5.02 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.97).

Cards come from 129 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo34237471:29+4276WWWWW
2PalmeirasPalmeiras342110362:23+3973WDWWW
3CruzeiroCruzeiro341861055:48+760WWWWL
4FluminenseFluminense34169955:42+1357WWLLL
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense341591051:43+854LLDLW
6BahiaBahia341411950:45+553LWDLW
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG341481244:40+450LLLWW
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino341381344:39+547WWLDW
9SantosSantos3412111150:49+147LDDWL
10Sao PauloSao Paulo341281439:39044DLDWW
11BotafogoBotafogo341191446:53-742WLLWD
12CoritibaCoritiba341191440:51-1142LWLLD
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama331181443:50-741WLWLD
14MirassolMirassol3410101439:48-940WLDWL
15VitoriaVitoria341081635:51-1638LLDDL
16InternacionalInternacional349111438:42-438WLWLD
17CorinthiansCorinthians349101536:42-637DWLDL
18GremioGremio349101538:47-937LWWLD
19RemoRemo346111737:57-2029LWLDD
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc33492033:68-3521LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo3471:2976
2PalmeirasPalmeiras3462:2373
3CruzeiroCruzeiro3455:4860
4FluminenseFluminense3455:4257
5Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense3451:4354
6BahiaBahia3450:4553
7Atletico-MGAtletico-MG3444:4050
8RB BragantinoRB Bragantino3444:3947
9SantosSantos3450:4947
10Sao PauloSao Paulo3439:3944
11BotafogoBotafogo3446:5342
12CoritibaCoritiba3440:5142
13Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama3343:5041
14MirassolMirassol3439:4840
15VitoriaVitoria3435:5138
16InternacionalInternacional3438:4238
17CorinthiansCorinthians3436:4237
18GremioGremio3438:4737
19RemoRemo3437:5729
20Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc3333:6821
PromotionRelegation

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About the Santos vs Mirassol forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Santos and Mirassol in the Serie A table

In the Serie A table, Santos are 9th and Mirassol 14th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Santos 50-49, Mirassol 39-48. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.