Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Prediction
Colombia · Clausura - 16
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.9 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.22
SignalHIGHModel57%SurpriseMediumGap-3.7%
Atletico Nacional Rest
2 days
Independiente Medellin Rest
7 days
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: result, form and history
Atletico Nacional beat Independiente Medellin 2-1 in the Primera A on 25 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Atletico Nacional had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Independiente Medellin.
Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.1 goals, and both sides scored in 7 of them. Referee Jonnathan Ortiz averages 5.35 cards a game, 0.76 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
155%1.74
X24%3.75
221%4.33
Double Chance
1X79%1.21
X245%2.00
Both Teams to Score
Yes55%1.67
No45%2.10
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.75 + 0.92 = 2.67
Over 1.577%1.22
Over 2.554%1.73
Over 3.532%2.75
Under 1.523%4.00
Under 2.546%2.05
Under 3.568%1.40
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.4 + 3.2 = 9.6
Over 8.560%1.50
Over 9.548%1.85
Over 10.537%2.34
Under 8.540%2.38
Under 9.552%1.85
Under 10.563%1.49
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.6 + 3.2 = 5.8
Over 3.583%-
Over 4.569%-
Under 3.517%-
Under 4.531%-
Match Events
20'H. Loboa
29'A. Simarra
32'E. Cardona
41'L. Escorcia
45+1'D. Moreno
53'E. CardonaAssist: E. Cabrera
56'M. Uribe INA. Sarmiento out
58'C. Lucumi INJ. Medina out
62'N. Parra INC. Haydar out
65'F. Fabra ING. Mancilla out
65'Yony Gonzalez INB. Perlaza out
73'A. SarmientoAssist: S. Velasquez
77'E. Cardona INA. Morelos out
77'J. Rodriguez INN. Rodriguez out
77'A. Roman INX. Rios out
77'D. Moreno IND. Moreno out
77'H. Loboa INK. Mantilla out
Lineups
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
4-4-2Avg ratingAvg rating
34F. Armani
6A. Román
3N. Parra
16W. Tesillo
33S. Velásquez
22E. Cabrera
21J. Campuzano
8M. Uribe
26F. Marin
C10E. Cardona
23J. Rodríguez
1S. Ichazo
26E. Mena
39L. Escorcia
19A. Simarra
18F. Fabra
11Y. González
C6D. Moreno
16H. Loboa
20J. Edwin Montaño
21A. Martegani
32C. LucumiAtletico Nacional Substitutes
29Andrés Sarmiento56'for M. Uribe73'
25Luis Marquinez
4César Haydar62'for N. Parra
20Milton Casco
31Xavi Rios77'for A. Roman
80Juan Zapata
19Juan Manuel Rengifo
13Nicolás Rodríguez77'for J. Rodriguez
9Alfredo Morelos77'for E. Cardona
Independiente Medellin Substitutes
9Jeison Medina58'for C. Lucumi
25Eder Chaux
5Joaquin Varela
4Kevin Mantilla77'for H. Loboa
34Keiner Klinger
10Daniel Cataño
31Diego Moreno45+1'77'for D. Moreno77'replaced by D. Moreno
14Baldomero Perlaza65'for Yony Gonzalez
17Geronimo Mancilla65'for F. Fabra
Match Stats
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin 59%Ball Possession41%
3Corner Kicks8
1Yellow Cards3
8Total Shots13
5Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal3
5Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box5
1Blocked Shots7
11Fouls15
2Offsides4
2Goalkeeper Saves3
421Total Passes281
352Passes Accurate220
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Team Comparison
Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin1735Elo Rating 1589
2.08Attack 1.13
2.24Defense 1.13
63%Hit Rate 19%
16.2Shots per Game 12.6
6.4Shots on Target 3.9
5.3Corners per Game 4.3
1.9Cards per Game 3.2
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+146 Elo
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
🔥Derby Match
Game State Tendencies
Atletico Nacional- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.8 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Independiente Medellin- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico Nacional5Wins · 50%Draws550%
Independiente Medellin0Wins · 0%
0Wins · 0%3.1Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
50%3+ goals5 of 10
Previous meetings
15/10/2026Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin32
12/04/2026Independiente MedellinAtletico Nacional23
18/12/2025Independiente MedellinAtletico Nacional01
13/12/2025Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin00
05/12/2025Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin21
23/11/2025Independiente MedellinAtletico Nacional00
27/10/2025Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin52
08/09/2025Independiente MedellinAtletico Nacional33
04/05/2025Independiente MedellinAtletico Nacional11
23/03/2025Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin11
Clásico paisaFull head-to-head record
Recent Form
Atletico Nacional5W3D2L
23/10/2026Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pasto
CucutaAtletico Nacional
ChicoAtletico NacionalAtletico NacionalIndependiente MedellinAtletico Nacional
Deportes TolimaAtletico Nacional
JuniorAtletico Nacional
Millonarios
LlanerosAtletico Nacional
Internacional de BogotaAtletico Nacional
Atletico NacionalDeportivo Pasto30
W21/10/2026CucutaAtletico Nacional10
L17/10/2026ChicoAtletico Nacional14
W15/10/2026Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin32
W09/10/2026Atletico NacionalDeportes Tolima00
D01/10/2026Atletico NacionalJunior31
W26/09/2026Atletico Nacional
Chapecoense-sc
25/09/2026Atletico NacionalChapecoense-sc11
DAtletico NacionalMillonarios11
D21/09/2026LlanerosAtletico Nacional20
L17/09/2026Internacional de BogotaAtletico Nacional23
WIndependiente Medellin3W2D5L
18/10/2026Independiente Medellin
Once CaldasAtletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
America de CaliIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
Santa FeIndependiente MedellinMillonariosIndependiente Medellin
Jaguares
BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas02
L15/10/2026Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin32
L12/10/2026America de CaliIndependiente Medellin12
W06/10/2026Independiente MedellinSanta Fe01
L30/09/2026Independiente MedellinMillonarios22
D27/09/2026JuniorIndependiente Medellin
23/09/2026JuniorIndependiente Medellin20
LIndependiente MedellinJaguares21
W18/09/2026BucaramangaIndependiente Medellin22
D13/09/2026ChicoIndependiente Medellin
ChicoIndependiente Medellin21
L10/09/2026Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin
Deportivo PastoIndependiente Medellin14
WReferee Profile
5.35Cards per match
5.13Yellow cards per match
0.22Red cards per match
25.0Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.35 cards a match, 0.76 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (6.11).
Cards come from 23 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
Apertura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | +20 | 40 | WDWWL |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | +7 | 35 | LWWLW |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | +4 | 34 | DLWWL |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | +10 | 33 | LWLDW |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | +9 | 33 | DDDLD |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | +10 | 31 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | +7 | 29 | DLWWD |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 0 | 28 | WDLLD |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | +4 | 27 | DWWLD |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | +8 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | +2 | 26 | LDWLW |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 26 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | +6 | 23 | LLLLD |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 22 | DWDDD |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | -5 | 22 | DDLLL |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | -13 | 18 | WLDLL |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 17 | WDLWW |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | -17 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 | WDWDD |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | -17 | 10 | LLLDD |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15:32 | 10 |
Clausura
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 30:13 | +17 | 32 | WDWWL |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29:11 | +18 | 31 | LWLDW |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 24:10 | +14 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23:15 | +8 | 28 | DLWWD |
| 5 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24:14 | +10 | 26 | DLDWW |
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 23:15 | +8 | 25 | LLLLD |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 22:21 | +1 | 23 | LDWLW |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 21:20 | +1 | 22 | LWLWD |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 21 | DDDLD |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 21 | WDWDD |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:26 | -10 | 18 | WDLWW |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 18:22 | -4 | 17 | WDLLD |
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 16:21 | -5 | 17 | DWDDD |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12:25 | -13 | 15 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 11:19 | -8 | 14 | LLLDD |
| 18 | Jaguares | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 | WLDLL |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 16:22 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10:22 | -12 | 12 | DLWWL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 15 | 30:13 | 32 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 15 | 29:11 | 31 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 16 | 24:10 | 30 |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 15 | 23:15 | 28 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 16 | 24:14 | 26 |
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 23:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 15 | 22:21 | 23 |
| 8 | Águilas Doradas | 16 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 16 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 16 | 18:24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 16:26 | 18 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 16 | 18:22 | 17 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 16 | 16:21 | 17 |
| 15 | Junior | 15 | 20:23 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 12:25 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 11:19 | 14 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 15 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 16:22 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 15 | 10:22 | 12 |
Explore more predictions
This match
More Primera A matches
- Junior vs Águilas Doradas 24/10/26
- America de Cali vs Cucuta 25/10/26
- Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pereira 25/10/26
- Alianza Valledupar vs Internacional de Bogota 25/10/26
- Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto 26/10/26
- Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga 27/10/26
- Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar 29/10/26
- Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe 30/10/26
About the Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin forecast
As a derby, this Primera A meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin in the Primera A table
In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional are 1st and Independiente Medellin 11th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: Atletico Nacional 35-15, Independiente Medellin 26-24. The full standings are on the Primera A Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Atletico Nacional have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.