Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig Prediction
World · League Stage - 3
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.24
SignalHIGHModel81%SurpriseMediumGap-1.6%
Real Madrid Rest
3 days
RB Leipzig Rest
4 days
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: the result in context
Real Madrid beat RB Leipzig 4-1 in the UEFA Champions League on 21 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Their 4 previous meetings averaged 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Referee Istvan Kovacs averages 5.18 cards a game, 0.78 more than other referees in the same competitions.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
178%1.24
X15%7.35
27%10.08
Double Chance
1X92%1.06
X222%4.12
Both Teams to Score
Yes59%1.47
No41%2.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.31 + 0.85 = 3.16
Over 1.588%1.02
Over 2.574%1.18
Over 3.557%1.50
Under 1.512%9.88
Under 2.526%4.47
Under 3.543%2.55
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.8 + 4 = 10.8
Over 8.570%1.36
Over 9.560%1.65
Over 10.550%2.08
Under 8.530%2.81
Under 9.540%2.13
Under 10.550%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.1 = 4
Over 3.556%1.76
Over 4.537%2.38
Under 3.544%2.00
Under 4.563%1.54
Match Events
43'Bernardo Silva
52'Arda GülerAssist: Kylian Mbappé
63'Neil El Aynaoui INRocco Reitz out
63'Brajan Gruda INAndrija Maksimović out
68'Álvaro Fernández CarrerasFoul
70'Rocco ReitzFoul
70'Vinícius INYan Diomande out
70'Álvaro Fernández Carreras INMarc Cucurella out
73'David Raum INMax Finkgräfe out
73'Antonio Nusa INTidiam Gomis out
78'Christopher Nkunku INChristoph Baumgartner out
78'Arda Güler INBrahim Díaz out
83'Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande
85'Tidiam GomisAssist: Christoph Baumgartner
87'Yan DiomandeAssist: Brahim Díaz
88'Kylian Mbappé INCarlos Espí out
88'Jude Bellingham INEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa out
Lineups
Real MadridRB Leipzig
4-2-3-1Coach: M. DemichelisAvg ratingAvg rating
1T. Courtois
8F. Valverde
22A. Rüdiger
4D. Huijsen
18Á. Fernández
6E. Camavinga
20B. Silva
15A. Güler
5J. Bellingham
7V. Júnior
10K. Mbappé
26M. Vandevoordt
17R. Baku
4W. Orbán
23C. Lukeba
22D. Raum
13N. Seiwald
21N. El Aynaoui
10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
7A. Nusa
40RômuloReal Madrid Substitutes
12T. Alexander-Arnold
21Brahim Díaz78'for Arda Güler
25Y. Diomande70'for Vinícius87'
24D. Dumfries
17Marc Cucurella70'for Álvaro Fernández Carreras
3Éder Militão
9Endrick88'for Jude Bellingham
19Carlos Espí88'for Kylian Mbappé
16I. Konaté
13A. Lunin
27Thiago Pitarch
14A. Tchouaméni
RB Leipzig Substitutes
14C. Baumgartner78'for Christopher Nkunku
3M. Estève
35Max Finkgräfe73'for David Raum
27T. Gomis73'for Antonio Nusa85'
39B. Henrichs
16L. Klostermann
2A. Koné
30A. MaksimoviÄ63'for Brajan Gruda
1Ø. Nyland
20R. Reitz63'for Neil El Aynaoui70'
11J. Bakayoko
6E. Banzuzi
Match Stats
Real MadridRB Leipzig 65%Ball Possession35%
7Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots11
11Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal4
13Shots Inside Box10
5Shots Outside Box1
1Blocked Shots1
13Fouls12
3Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves6
743Total Passes405
679Passes Accurate355
12Free Kicks13
Team Comparison
Real MadridRB Leipzig2012Elo Rating 1840
3.08Attack 2.51
1.64Defense 0.91
86%Hit Rate 58%
14.4Shots per Game 14.3
7.4Shots on Target 6.3
5.5Corners per Game 3.3
2.3Cards per Game 0.8
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+172 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.16 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
Game State Tendencies
Real Madrid- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
RB Leipzig- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.9 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings, all competitions
Real Madrid2Wins · 50%Draws125%
RB Leipzig1Wins · 25%
1Wins · 25%2.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4
Previous meetings
06/03/2024Real MadridRB Leipzig11
13/02/2024RB LeipzigReal Madrid01
25/10/2022RB LeipzigReal Madrid32
14/09/2022Real MadridRB Leipzig20
Recent Form
Real Madrid8W0D2L
18/10/2026Real Madrid
Sevilla
AS RomaReal MadridReal Madrid
Villarreal
Atletico MadridReal Madrid
ElcheReal MadridReal Madrid
Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid
Inter
Real BetisReal MadridReal Madrid
MalagaReal Madrid
Real Sociedad
Real MadridSevilla41
W14/10/2026AS RomaReal Madrid34
W10/10/2026Real MadridVillarreal10
W20/09/2026Atletico MadridReal Madrid21
L15/09/2026ElcheReal Madrid23
W12/09/2026Real MadridRayo Vallecano41
W08/09/2026Real MadridInter21
W04/09/2026Real BetisReal Madrid10
L30/08/2026Real MadridMalaga40
W26/08/2026Real MadridReal Sociedad41
WRB Leipzig5W0D5L
17/10/2026
Bayern MünchenRB LeipzigRB Leipzig
PSV EindhovenRB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayer LeverkusenRB LeipzigRB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
ComoRB Leipzig
Werder BremenRB LeipzigRB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig61
L13/10/2026RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven10
W10/10/2026RB LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt60
W20/09/2026Bayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig20
L13/09/2026RB LeipzigHamburger SV50
W10/09/2026ComoRB Leipzig41
L05/09/2026Werder BremenRB Leipzig31
L29/08/2026RB LeipzigBorussia Mönchengladbach30
W22/08/2026
Eintracht TrierRB Leipzig
Eintracht TrierRB Leipzig06
W15/08/2026Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig31
LReferee Profile
5.18Cards per match
4.93Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
25.4Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.18 cards a match, 0.78 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.40).
Cards come from 214 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Explore more predictions
This match
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About the Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Real Madrid are 4th and RB Leipzig 30th, 6 points apart. League goal record so far: Real Madrid 10-5, RB Leipzig 3-8. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.