France vs Sweden Prediction

France
3-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Sweden
MetLife Stadium, New-York·Danny Makkelie, Netherlands 30/06/2026
FranceFrance
3-0
Finished
SwedenSweden

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.5 / 10
Value Analysis
57%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.93
SignalNEUTRALModel90%SurpriseMediumGap+4.9%
France Rest
4 days
Sweden Rest
4 days

France vs Sweden: result, form and history

France beat Sweden 3-0 in the World Cup on 30 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: France had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Sweden.

France have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. France tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 2.5 for Sweden.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
73%1.29
X
21%6.00
2
6%10.25
Double Chance
1X
94%1.06
X2
27%3.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.70
No
48%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.65 + 0.86 = 3.51
Over 1.5
73%1.09
Over 2.5
50%1.40
Over 3.5
29%2.05
Under 1.5
27%6.00
Under 2.5
50%2.85
Under 3.5
71%1.80
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.6 + 2.1 = 8.7
Over 8.5
52%1.50
Over 9.5
43%1.85
Over 10.5
32%2.26
Under 8.5
48%2.46
Under 9.5
57%1.93
Under 10.5
68%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.1 + 1.7 = 2.8
Over 3.5
45%3.25
Over 4.5
26%3.15
Under 3.5
55%1.29
Under 4.5
74%1.30

Match Events

21'Goal Disallowed - offsideK. Mbappe
45'K. MbappeAssist: O. Dembele
53'B. BarcolaAssist: M. Olise
66'E. Stroud INT. Ali out
66'L. Bergvall INB. Zeneli out
74'K. MbappeAssist: M. Olise
75'J. Kounde INM. Gusto out
75'O. Dembele IND. Doue out
78'L. Digne INT. Hernandez out
82'D. Svensson INM. Svanberg out
82'Y. Ayari INB. Nygren out
85'K. Mbappe INJ. Mateta out
85'M. Olise INR. Cherki out
89'A. Isak ING. Nilsson out

Lineups

France
4-2-3-1Coach: Didier Deschamps
Sweden
4-4-2Coach: Graham Potter
Avg rating7.24
Avg rating6.63
Mike Maignan7.216M. Maignan
Jules Koundé7.05J. Koundé
Dayot Upamecano6.64D. Upamecano
William Saliba7.217W. Saliba
Lucas Digne7.03L. Digne
Aurélien Tchouaméni7.78A. Tchouaméni
Adrien Rabiot6.614A. Rabiot
Ousmane Dembélé7.57O. Dembélé
Michael Olise8.911M. Olise
Bradley Barcola7.912B. Barcola
Kylian MbappéC9.610K. Mbappé
Jacob Widell Zetterström8.71J. Widell Zetterström
Daniel Svensson5.98D. Svensson
Gustaf Lagerbielke6.52G. Lagerbielke
Victor LindelöfC6.53V. Lindelöf
Gabriel Gudmundsson6.35G. Gudmundsson
Anthony Elanga6.511A. Elanga
Lucas Bergvall6.67L. Bergvall
Yasin Ayari6.718Y. Ayari
Elliot Stroud6.324E. Stroud
Viktor Gyökeres6.917V. Gyökeres
Alexander Isak6.39A. Isak

France Substitutes

23Robin Risser
1Brice Samba
2Malo Gusto75'for J. Kounde6.7
21Lucas Hernández
26Maxence Lacroix
15Ibrahima Konaté
19Theo Hernández78'for L. Digne6.9
6Manu Koné
24Rayan Cherki85'for M. Olise6.3
25Maghnes Akliouche
18Warren Zaïre-Emery
13N'Golo Kanté
22Jean-Philippe Mateta85'for K. Mbappe6.2
20Désiré Doué75'for O. Dembele6.6
9Marcus Thuram

Sweden Substitutes

22Besfort Zeneli66'for L. Bergvall6.3
26Taha Abdi Ali66'for E. Stroud6.5
23Kristoffer Nordfeldt
12Viktor Johansson
14Hjalmar Ekdal
20Eric Smith
15Carl Starfelt
6Herman Johansson
13Ken Sema
16Jesper Karlström
19Mattias Svanberg82'for D. Svensson6.7
10Benjamin Nygren82'for Y. Ayari6.7
25Gustaf Nilsson89'for A. Isak
21Alexander Bernhardsson

Match Stats

FranceSweden
61%Ball Possession39%
9Corner Kicks1
25Total Shots8
12Shots on Goal3
9Shots off Goal4
16Shots Inside Box7
9Shots Outside Box1
4Blocked Shots1
14Fouls10
3Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves9
551Total Passes352
485Passes Accurate280
88%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

FranceFrance
SwedenSweden
1927Elo Rating 1648
2.23Attack 1.41
1.66Defense 1.99
63%Hit Rate 63%
18.5Shots per Game 10.4
7.3Shots on Target 3.7
5.9Corners per Game 2.5
1.2Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+279 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.51 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

FranceFrance
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half, then tightens up after the break
SwedenSweden
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

FranceFrance3Wins · 60%
Draws00%
SwedenSweden2Wins · 40%
3.0Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League17/11/2020
FranceSweden
42
UEFA Nations League05/09/2020
SwedenFrance
01
World Cup - Qualification Europe09/06/2017
SwedenFrance
21
World Cup - Qualification Europe11/11/2016
FranceSweden
21
Euro Championship19/06/2012
SwedenFrance
20

Recent Form

FranceFrance
8W1D1L
26/06/2026
NorwayFrance
14
W
22/06/2026
FranceIraq
30
W
16/06/2026
FranceSenegal
31
W
08/06/2026
FranceNorthern Ireland
31
W
04/06/2026
FranceIvory Coast
12
L
16/11/2025
AzerbaijanFrance
13
W
13/11/2025
FranceUkraine
40
W
13/10/2025
IcelandFrance
22
D
10/10/2025
FranceAzerbaijan
30
W
09/09/2025
FranceIceland
21
W
SwedenSweden
3W3D4L
26/06/2026
JapanSweden
11
D
20/06/2026
NetherlandsSweden
51
L
15/06/2026
SwedenTunisia
51
W
04/06/2026
SwedenGreece
22
D
01/06/2026
NorwaySweden
31
L
31/03/2026
SwedenPoland
32
W
26/03/2026
UkraineSweden
13
W
18/11/2025
SwedenSlovenia
11
D
15/11/2025
SwitzerlandSweden
41
L
13/10/2025
SwedenKosovo
01
L

Referee Profile

Danny Makkelie208 matches

3.38Cards per match
3.21Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
22.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Danny Makkelie3.38
Other referees3.24

3.38 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.24).

Cards come from 205 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands321010:4+67WWD
2JapanJapan31207:3+45DWD
3SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
4TunisiaTunisia30032:12-100LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands310:47
2JapanJapan37:35
3SwedenSweden37:74
4TunisiaTunisia32:120

Group I

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance330010:2+89WWW
2NorwayNorway32018:7+16LWW
3SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
4IraqIraq30031:12-110LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance310:29
2NorwayNorway38:76
3SenegalSenegal38:63
4IraqIraq31:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

About the France vs Sweden forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage is the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% means strong statistical confidence; 45-65% points to a competitive, open match; below 45% means the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for information and entertainment only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.5 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.