Canada vs Morocco Prediction

Canada
0-3
Finished
HT 0-0
Morocco
NRG Stadium, Houston·Michael Oliver, England 04/07/2026
CanadaCanada
0-3
Finished
MoroccoMorocco

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.0 / 10
Value Analysis
53%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
2.00
SignalNEUTRALModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+6.5%
Canada Rest
5 days
Morocco Rest
4 days

Canada vs Morocco: the result in context

Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in the World Cup on 4 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Canada tend to win more corners, 9.7 a game to 4.7 for Morocco.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
14%5.00
X
30%3.42
2
56%1.78
Double Chance
1X
44%2.00
X2
86%1.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%2.00
No
47%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.02 + 1.48 = 2.50
Over 1.5
73%1.36
Over 2.5
44%2.20
Over 3.5
25%3.95
Under 1.5
27%2.95
Under 2.5
56%1.67
Under 3.5
75%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 4.1 = 8.8
Over 8.5
54%1.70
Over 9.5
46%2.14
Over 10.5
33%2.83
Under 8.5
46%2.04
Under 9.5
54%1.64
Under 10.5
67%1.37
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.4 = 3.5
Over 3.5
45%2.52
Over 4.5
27%3.58
Under 3.5
55%1.46
Under 4.5
73%1.25

Match Events

20'Redouane HalhalFoul
22'Ismael Saibari INSoufiane Rahimi out
40'Richie LaryeaArgument
40'Achraf HakimiOff the ball foul
43'Jonathan DavidFoul
45'Azzedine OunahiFoul
45+6'Bilal El KhannoussFoul
49'Luc De FougerollesFoul
50'Azzedine OunahiAssist: Achraf Hakimi
63'Tani Oluwaseyi INCyle Larin out
63'Ayyoub Bouaddi INSofyan Amrabat out
63'Bilal El Khannouss INChemsdine Talbi out
67'Cyle LarinFoul
78'Richie Laryea INJacob Shaffelburg out
78'Ali Ahmed INPromise David out
82'Azzedine OunahiAssist: Brahim Díaz
87'Tajon Buchanan INJayden Nelson out
87'Niko Sigur INJonathan Osorio out
87'Azzedine Ounahi INSamir El Mourabet out
87'Issa Diop INMarwane Saadane out
90+8'Soufiane RahimiAssist: Brahim Díaz

Lineups

Canada
4-4-2Coach: Jesse Marsch
Morocco
4-2-3-1Coach: Mohamed Ouahbi
Avg rating6.44
Avg rating7.11
Maxime Crépeau5.916M. Crépeau
Alistair Johnston6.02A. Johnston
Moise Bombito5.315M. Bombito
Luc De Fougerolles5.64L. De Fougerolles
Richie Laryea6.722R. Laryea
Tajon Buchanan5.917T. Buchanan
Niko Sigur6.923N. Sigur
Stephen EustaquioC7.57S. Eustaquio
Ali Ahmed6.920A. Ahmed
Jonathan David6.510J. David
Tani Oluwaseyi7.312T. Oluwaseyi
Yassine Bounou7.61Y. Bounou
Achraf HakimiC7.22A. Hakimi
Issa Diop7.314I. Diop
Redouane Halhal6.925R. Halhal
Noussair Mazraoui7.93N. Mazraoui
Ayyoub Bouaddi7.06A. Bouaddi
Neil El Aynaoui6.724N. El Aynaoui
Brahim Díaz7.310B. Díaz
Azzedine Ounahi9.28A. Ounahi
Bilal El Khannouss6.523B. El Khannouss
Ismael Saibari6.311I. Saibari

Canada Substitutes

9Cyle Larin63'for Tani Oluwaseyi67'6.3
14Jacob Shaffelburg78'for Richie Laryea6.9
24Promise David78'for Ali Ahmed6.5
21Jonathan Osorio87'for Niko Sigur6.3
26Jayden Nelson87'for Tajon Buchanan6.6
18Owen Goodman
1Dayne St. Clair
5Joel Waterman
19Alphonso Davies
3Alfie Jones
13Derek Cornelius
6Mathieu Choinière
25Nathan-Dylan Saliba
11Liam Millar

Morocco Substitutes

9Soufiane Rahimi22'for Ismael Saibari90+8'7.2
4Sofyan Amrabat63'for Ayyoub Bouaddi6.2
7Chemsdine Talbi63'for Bilal El Khannouss6.9
5Marwane Saadane87'for Issa Diop6.9
15Samir El Mourabet87'for Azzedine Ounahi6.7
12Munir El Kajoui
22Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti
26Anass Salah-Eddine
13Zakaria El Ouahdi
19Youssef Belammari
18Chadi Riad
17Amine Sbai
16Gessime Yassine
20Ayoub El Kaabi
21Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab

Match Stats

CanadaMorocco
45%Ball Possession55%
11Corner Kicks1
4Yellow Cards4
10Total Shots5
3Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal1
6Shots Inside Box3
4Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots0
24Fouls14
2Offsides3
1Goalkeeper Saves3
359Total Passes473
272Passes Accurate388
76%Pass Accuracy82%

Team Comparison

CanadaCanada
MoroccoMorocco
1651Elo Rating 1850
1.56Attack 1.64
1.66Defense 2.47
39%Hit Rate 66%
15.1Shots per Game 12.2
6.0Shots on Target 3.7
9.7Corners per Game 4.7
2.4Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

CanadaCanada
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MoroccoMorocco
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

CanadaCanada0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
MoroccoMorocco1Wins · 100%
3.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
100%3+ goals1 of 1

Previous meetings

World Cup01/12/2022
CanadaMorocco
12

Recent Form

CanadaCanada
5W3D2L
28/06/2026
South AfricaCanada
01
W
24/06/2026
SwitzerlandCanada
21
L
19/06/2026
CanadaQatar
60
W
12/06/2026
CanadaBosnia & Herzegovina
11
D
06/06/2026
CanadaRep. Of Ireland
11
D
02/06/2026
CanadaUzbekistan
20
W
29/06/2025
CanadaGuatemala
5161
L
25/06/2025
CanadaEl Salvador
20
W
22/06/2025
CuraçaoCanada
11
D
18/06/2025
CanadaHonduras
60
W
MoroccoMorocco
8W2D0L
30/06/2026
NetherlandsMorocco
2131
W
25/06/2026
MoroccoHaiti
42
W
20/06/2026
ScotlandMorocco
01
W
14/06/2026
BrazilMorocco
11
D
07/06/2026
MoroccoNorway
11
D
02/06/2026
MoroccoMadagascar
40
W
26/05/2026
MoroccoBurundi
50
W
18/01/2026
SenegalMorocco
0030
W
14/01/2026
NigeriaMorocco
2040
W
09/01/2026
CameroonMorocco
02
W

Referee Profile

Michael Oliver313 matches

3.92Cards per match
3.78Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Michael Oliver3.92
Other referees3.94

3.92 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.94).

Cards come from 306 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland32107:3+47WWD
2CanadaCanada31118:3+54LWD
3Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
4QatarQatar30122:10-81LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland37:37
2CanadaCanada38:34
3Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
4QatarQatar32:101

Group C

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BrazilBrazil32107:1+67WWD
2MoroccoMorocco32106:3+37WWD
3ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
4HaitiHaiti30032:8-60LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BrazilBrazil37:17
2MoroccoMorocco36:37
3ScotlandScotland31:43
4HaitiHaiti32:80

About the Canada vs Morocco forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.0 out of 10 by our context model. Canada and Morocco have met only 1 time recently, with 3.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.